[Maitland]

As I have said the United Kingdom Government (The Labour Party) are likely to call the general election next week, setting a date of May 6th. It will be then that campaigning will start in Earnest.

As you can see from previous posts the Conservative and Unionist Party are ahead in the polls and are currently getting some good press and support from certain people within the business community and this support I would suggest is hitting the Labour Party hard. There has been a lot of talk that the Conservatives policy on the UK economic problems were inept and I would suggest that this has had an impact on the Conservatives in the polls with electorate sympathetic to that particular point.

However what has happened recently has done the Conservatives no ill at all. The labour party (The Government) are looking to raise the National Insurance Contributions (NI). NI was first introduced in 1911 and expanded just after the second world war. It would be very complicated to try and explain how it works in the post but simply put it is a financial contribution made by individuals and employers that give a sort of insurance that covers illness (NHS), unemployment and benefits. The Labour Government have made comment that they will raise NI and this has not went down well with the Conservatives. It would appear that businesses are unhappy with this as well. Initially 24 figures well known within the business sector came out and supported the Conservatives and now we have seen another 14 show their support.

These people may not be supporting the Conservative policies on the economy but it could appear like that to many and may push the Conservatives further ahead in the polls.

On another small point; the rise in the Liberal Democrat percentage in the last poll. The Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer Vince Cable is an extremely capable man and comes across very very well. The other night there was a televised debate on the economy between the three Shadow Chancellors and once again Vince Cable came across very well. On a personal note I think the Liberal Democrats are missing a trick here, they need to get rid of Nick Clegg their leader and get Vince Cable at the helm, I am quite sure this would push them higher up in the polls.

M...

[Maitland]

Two new polls today.

YouGov for the Sunday Times Newspaper

Conservative and Unionist Party 39%
Labour Party 29%
Liberal Democrats 20%

This gives the Conservatives a 10% lead.


Angus Reid for the Sunday Express Newspaper

Conservative and Unionist Party 38%
Labour Party 27%
Liberal Democrats 20%

This gives the Conservatives a lead of 11%.

According to these two polls the Conservatives are now pulling away from The Labour Party and may have something to do with the latest National Insurance (NI) media coverage.

M...

This post has been edited by Maitland: 04 April 2010 - 04:41 PM
Reason for edit: Typo

[Maitland]

At 10am tomorrow morning April 6th the Prime Minister Gordon Brown will attend Buckingham Palace where he will seek the dissolutionment of the UK Parliament from the Queen of England (Scotland has never had an Elizabeth the 1st). The UK Parliament will be dissolved on April the 12th and an election held on May 6th to elect a new UK Government, the campaign as of tomorrow will be on and it will be down to the people of the UK to chose their government.

The people of Scotland have only one choice in my opinion and that is to chose a group of politicians who will stand up for this ancient nation of ours in a foreign parliament and move the cause of Scottish Independence forward.

M...

[Maitland]

No official word yet regarding the dissolutionment of parliament but we do have two new polls just before the announcement.

YouGov for the Sun Newspaper

Conservative and Unionist party 41%
The Labour Party 31%
Liberal Democrats 18%

This gives the Conservatives a lead of 10%

Opinium for the Express Newspaper

Conservative and Unionist Party 39%
The Labour Party 29%
Liberal Democrats 17%

Again this gives the Conservatives a lead of 10%.

This is a strong position for the Conservatives in which to start an election campaign, it is for them to lose.

You will notice that throughout this forum that there has been very little with regards to polls in a Scottish context. This is due to the fact this is a UK election and Scotland is part of the United Kingdom and the polls tend to concentrate around the UK rather than those nations comprising the UK.

The announcement of the election date is imminent.

M...

[Maitland]

We have heard from David Cameron leader of the Conservatives and Unionists this morning and from Nick Clegg the leader of the Liberal democrats. We have yet to hear from Gordon Brown and the official announcement of the election date.

So far we have heard nothing from the BBC with regards to the SNP and their thoughts. Now please bear in mind that the SNP are not just a fringe party within the UK anymore, they are a Government within the UK.

I am sure at some point the BBC will allow a wee interview with the Scottish Government on their thoughts on a UK election.

M...

[Maitland]

The UK general election will be held on Thursday May 6th 2010.

There are some across the UK who will downplay the role that the SNP will have in this election, they will say that they do not field candidates across the UK and that they are an irrelevance in a general election.

This is not the case. They are an important part in the political landscape in Scotland and across the UK. It is important that Scotland has a strong voice in Westminster and only one party are in a position to offer this and that party is the Scottish National Party. I have my differences with the SNP, there are aspects of that party that I disagree with strongly and have in the past stood against SNP candidates but since the SNP took Government in Scotland it is important that all Nationalists stand shoulder to shoulder with other Nationalists and fight for a strong Scottish voice in the UK parliament, our differences need to be set aside and we have to fight for the removal of Scotland from the United Kingdom.

M...

[Maitland]

Just the one new poll this morning.

YouGov for the Sun Newspaper.

The Conservative and Unionist Party 40%
The Labour Party 31%
The Liberal Democrats 18%

This gives the Conservatives a lead of 9%.

M...

A wee add on. This poll above with a lead of 9% would still leave the Conservatives short of a majority by around 6 seats and we would still have a hung parliament. The Conservatives need to show a lead of about 12% to give them a majority and form the next UK Government. If the Conservatives had a lead in the polls of about 4 to 5% then it would be the Labour party who would have the bigger share of the vote and would put them in the position to look towards coalition partners and form a government.

This post has been edited by Maitland: 09 April 2010 - 06:00 AM

[Maitland]

Apologies for my lack of posts over the last few days but have been rather unwell but thankfully I am on the road to recovery.

There have been a number of polls since my last post and these are as follows.

YouGov for the Sun Newspaper

Conservatives 37%
Labour 31%
Liberals 20%

Conservative lead of 6%. This would result in a Hung Parliament with the Conservatives the largest party but short of a majority by 39 seats.

ICM for the Guardian Newspaper

Conservative 37%
Labour 31%
Liberals 20%

Conservative lead of 6%. This would result in a hung parliament with the Conservatives the largest party but short of a majority of 39 seats.

BPIX for the Mail on Sunday Newspaper

Conservative 38%
Labour 31%
Liberals 20%

Conservative lead of 7%. This would result in a hung parliament with the Conservatives the largest party but short of a majority by 28 seats.

YouGov for the Sunday Times Newspaper

Conservatives 40%
Labour 32%
Liberals 18%

Conservative lead of 8%. This would result in a hung parliament and the Conservatives the largest party but short of a majority by 11 seats.

ComRes for the Ind on Sun Newspaper and Sunday Mirror Newspaper

Conservatives 39%
Labour 32%
Liberals 16%

Conservative lead of 7%. This would result in a hung parliament and the Conservatives the largest party but short of a majority of 18 seats.

In a Scottish Context

There haven't been that many seperate polls specifically dealing with Scotland in this General Election but if we take an average of all the polls conducted we find the following:

The Labour Party 35.4%
The Scottish National Party (SNP) 27.8%
The Conservatives 18.2%
The Liberal Democrats 13.3%

If we are to take these figures and use them to predict the amount of seats for each party in Scotland you would get the following.

Out of 59 Scottish Seats at Westminster (UK Parliament).

The Labour Party 40
The Liberal Democrats 9
The Scottish National Party (SNP) 8
The Conservatives 2

The SNP are looking to secure as many seats as they can and have predicted that they will take 20 seats out of the 59 in Scotland. As we can see from these figures they would be short of that target by some way if indeed the fugures are correct. The whole point of the SNP wanting to take 20 seats is to be able to influence the biggest party in a UK hung parliament but with these figures that would be impossible, the SNP would just not have enough MP's to make much of a difference. In my opinion if the SNP were to take only 8 seats out of 59 and there was a hung parliament it would be a very very bad result indeed.

If I may offer a personal opinion? I would rather see a Conservative UK government in the UK where they only have 2 seats out of 59 in Scotland. This would create a constitutional crisis in Scotland where a UK Government governs Scotland with only 2 MP's. This in the short term would be a disaster for Scotland but in the long term may just see the end of the union and that is not a bad thing.

M...

This post has been edited by Maitland: 13 April 2010 - 05:27 AM

[Mike]

I agree with your opinion. It may be a case of giving up a little to gain a lot.

But I'm not getting any younger, you know?

[Maitland]

Mike I did type out a rather lengthy reply with further information on polls and lost the lot so I will try again.

It is difficult for me to talk about a Conservative win in the UK as I remember only too well Margaret Thatcher and the Conservatives from the 70's and 80's. I remember over 3 million unemployed, record insolvencies and interst rates in the region of 15% but more to the point the introduction of the poll tax in Scotland one year ahead of the UK and in breach of the Act of Union (1707).

It is difficult to pidgeon hole my politics as there are certain aspect of Conservative Policy I agree with and certain aspect of Labour policy I agree with but the bottom line is the fact that Scotland should be voting for a Government for Scotland and not having a government imposed upon us by the rest of the UK as may happen if the Conservatives win with an outright majority on May 6th into May 7th. If this happens it should focus the mind of the Scottish electorate and change Scottish politics but who knows. We have to remember that certain parts of Glasgow were impoverished 50 years ago when the Labour Party took power through the council in their area and 50 years on they are still impoverished yet they continue to vote for the party that have kept them impoverished and they still continue to vote for a system that allows the English to dictate Scottish Politics.

There have been some other polls recently and they are as follows:

YouGov for the Sun Newspaper.

Conservatives 41%
Labour 32%
Liberal Democrats 18%

This gives the Conservatives a lead of 9% and will result in a hung parliament with the Conservatives short of a majority of 1 seat.

ComRes for the Independent Newspaper and ITV the news channel.

Conservatives 35%
Labour 29%
Liberal Democrats 21%

This gives the Conservatives a lead of 6% and would result in a hung parliament with the Conservatives short of a majority by 43 seats.

Harris for the Metro Newspaper.

Conservatives 36%
Labour 27%
Liberal Democrats 23%

This gives the Conservatives a lead of 9% and would result in a hung parliament with the Conservatives short of a majority by 22 seats.

You may have noticed that that some of these percentage leads are the same but the majority of seats change. This takes into account the change in the Liberal Democrat vote and those regarded as other.

Tonight we have the leaders debate. Usual in America but the first time in the UK. This debate has excluded the leader of the SNP Alex Salmond and the SNP who form the Scottish Government.

M...

This post has been edited by Maitland: 15 April 2010 - 08:05 AM
Reason for edit: Typo

[Maitland]

One more poll this morning.

Yougov

Conservatives 37%
Labour 31%
Liberal democrats 22%

This gives the Conservatives a lead of 6% and would result in a hung parliament with the Conservatives the largest party but short of a majority by 42 seats.

I have made a prediction for the allocation of seats in a Scottish context. At the moment, prior to the election the parties stand as thus:

The Labour Party 39 seats.
The Liberal democrats 12 seats.
The Scottish National Party 7 seats
The Conservatives 1 seat

The prediction I have made is this:

The Labour Party 40 seats
The Liberal Democrats 9 seats
The Scottish National Party 8 seats
The Conservatives 2 seats.

I have also predicted a Conservative win at the UK general election but with a majority of less than ten.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) have predicted that they will take 20 seats at this election and I believe that this has been a rather foolish prediction to make on their part and has shown a certain degree of arrogance. The SNP will always be looked on as an irrelevance in a UK general election due to the fact that they can never form a UK government and in that sense will be looked on as a fringe party within a UK context. Although Alex Salmond has had more UK air time than other SNP leaders he is still being marginalised by the three main parties, The Conservatives, The Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats.

If the Labour Party win this election or are the biggest party in a hung parliament and are able to form a government this will not bode well for the SNP. The UK will continue to move out of recession and the Labour party will take plaudits for this. The economy works in peaks and troughs and all the evidence points to the economy coming out of the recent trough.

In 2011 the people of Scotland will go to the polls and it will be a straight fight between the SNP and Labour and with a resurgent British Labour Party still in power in Westminster then I believe that the SNP will lose Scotland and with it any momentum they once had.

This is why I believe that it is in Scotlands best interest in the long term for a Conservative win. This UK government will have been imposed on the people of Scotland and will have no mandate here. Without a Conservative win I firmly believe that the SNP will have lost the argument and in turn the confidence of the Scottish people.

I could of course be very very wrong and I hope I am because the SNP are the only party that can move Independence forward. I believe personally that Independence cannot come whilst part of the EU but the SNP are perceived to be the party of Independence and ALL Nationalists have to stand shoulder to shoulder at the moment, yes I have maybe not abided by that bit of advice in the past but since the SNP have taken government then we have to put our differences aside and hold onto what we have and work with it, irrespective of our differences.

M...

This post has been edited by Maitland: 16 April 2010 - 07:24 AM

[Maitland]

Well here is a turn up for the books. This poll was conducted after the leaders debate last night, the first in the UK.

ComRes for the news channel ITV.

Conservatives 36%
The Liberal Democrats 35%
The Labour Party 24%

I am sure this is a one off but even then it is one hell of a result for the Liberal Democrats. The sample was from 4000 people and that is not an insignificant number.

This result would still result in a hung parliament with the Conservatives the biggest party but short of a majority of 37 seats but the most significant point about this poll if taken against the latest UK poll shows the Liberal Democrats taking 88 more seats and the Labour Party losing 91 seats.

This poll would leave the allocation of seats thus.

The Conservatives 289 Seats
The Labour Party 187 Seats
The Liberal democrats 147.

M...

[Maitland]

Some very interesting polls today and how it will effect the allocation of seats.

YouGov for the Sunday Times Newspaper

The Conservative Party 33%
The Labour Party 30%
The Liberal Democrats 29%

This gives the Conservatives a lead of 3%. This would result in a hung parliament with the Labour Party the largest party but short of a majority by 35 seats.

BPIX for the Mail on Sunday Newspaper

The Liberal Democrats 32%
The Conservatives 31%
The Labour Party 28%

This gives the Liberal Democrats a lead of 1%. This would result in a hung parliament with the Labour Party the largest party but short of a majority by 77 seats. 1

ComRes for the Ind on Sun newspaper and the Sunday Mirror Newspaper.

The Conservatives 31%
The Liberal Democrats 29%
The Labour Party 27%

This gives the Conservatives a lead of 2%. This would result in a hung parliament with the Labour party the largest party but short of a majority by 46 seats.

It would appear that the Liberal Democrats are still experiencing a bit of a bounce from the leaders debate. Personally I believe that Nick Clegg (The Liberal Democrat leader) and his policies will come under a lot more scrutiny over the remaining 19 days before the UK go to the polls and suspect that the polls may return them back to the low 20's before the election or have the electorate really taken the Liberal Democrats to their heart and looking for real change in UK politics.

[Maitland]

One more poll this morning and a poll of polls.

Yougov

The Conservatives 33%
The Labour Party 30%
The Liberal Democrats 29%

This gives the Conservatives a lead of 3%. This would result in a hung parliament with the Labour Party the biggest party but short of a majority of 35 seats.

Poll of Polls

The Conservatives 33%
The Labour Party 29%
The Liberal Democrats 29%

This gives the Conservatives a lead of 4%. This would result in a hung parliament with the Labour party the biggest party but short of a majority of 41 seats.

The rise in the Popularity of the Liberal democrats will impact in a couple of ways. In a UK context you will see that with the rise we have a fall in the Conservative vote and this would result in a rise in the Labour party resulting in them being the biggest party.

In a Scottish context there is the possibility that the Liberal Democrats will be looked on as the change some in Scotland are looking for and will give them (not the natural nationalist and possible SNP voter) the opportunity to vote for that change. There are a number of seats in Scotland that will be effected by the swing to the Liberal democrats. With a swing of less than 3% the Liberal Democrats will take 3 seats from the Labour Party, with a swing of between 6% and 8% they will start to take seats from both Labour and the Conservatives. Between 8% and 9% they will take 3 seats from the Scottish National Party (SNP). At the moment they consider themselves to be the second party in Scotland behind the Labour party and if their popularity continues in the run up to this election they will certaily consolidate their position to the detriment of the SNP.

For those unfamiliar with the Liberal Democrats they were once a party of Government in the UK, known then as the Liberals. The Liberal Democrats are a union between the Liberals and the Social Democrat Party (SDP) constituted in 1988. The Liberal Democrats believe in a Federal UK. They support more powers for the Scottish Parliament but oppose full Scottish Independence.

This post has been edited by Maitland: 18 April 2010 - 05:23 AM

[Maitland]

Another poll released this morning.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror Newspsper and Independent on Sunday Newspaper

Conservatives 31%
Liberal Democrats 29%
Labour 27%.

This gives the Conservatives a lead of 2%. This would result in a hung parliament with the Labour Party the biggest party but short of a majority of 46 seats.

[Maitland]

You may have noticed from the last poll that the Liberal Democrats are now ahead of the Labour Party. If we take these percentages and turn them into seats allocated in the UK Parliament we would get the following.

The Conservative Party 238 seats (31% in the latest poll)
The Liberal Democrats 103 seats (29% in the latest poll)
The Labour Party 280 seats (27% in the latest poll)
Other (SNP, Plaid Cymru, Greens etc) 29 seats.

You may wonder why the Liberal Democrats with 29% of the poll, 2 percentage points ahead of the Labour party have 177 seats less. This is simply due to the electoral system that the UK operates.The first-past-the-post electoral system used in UK General Elections is not suited to parties whose vote is evenly divided across the country, resulting in those parties achieving a lower proportion of seats in the Commons than their proportion of the popular vote. It is therefore understandable why the Liberal Democrats favour a change in the electoral system with the adoption of Proportional Representation.

If we look at the figures from the 2005 General Election we can see the discrepency in the figures in relation to percentage of the popular vote to the percentage of seats allocated to the Liberal Democrats in the UK Parliament. The Liberals took 22.1% of all votes cast, this resulted in 62 seats in the UK Parliament and that is 9.6% of the share of seats.

If we have a hung parliament with the Labour Party the largest party with the Liberal Democrats in a strong position then there is a possibility that The Liberal Democrats will back the Labour Party if they agree to changing the first-past-the-post-system to a system of proportional representation. The Conservatives are opposed to this form of voting.

With the rise in the Liberal democrat vote it makes the run up to the election even more interesting than most would have hoped for.

M...

This post has been edited by Maitland: 18 April 2010 - 06:19 AM

[Mike]

I know several software developers and forum admins in South Wales and that wee country to your immediate south. And it is as if they speak as one voice. Clegg and the Lib-Dems are their clear-cut choice. It seems Cameron and Brown are equally hated. After the recent debates (which I've not seen at all, BTW), they all seem to feel Clegg is their newest hero.

[Maitland]

Mike, on 19 April 2010 - 05:48 AM, said:

I know several software developers and forum admins in South Wales and that wee country to your immediate south. And it is as if they speak as one voice. Clegg and the Lib-Dems are their clear-cut choice. It seems Cameron and Brown are equally hated. After the recent debates (which I've not seen at all, BTW), they all seem to feel Clegg is their newest hero.

Mike. Cleggmania seems to be rife. The Liberal Democrats will never form a government at this election on their own, as I have said, the system just does not allow it. I think they would have to show about 38 to 40% and a 7% lead to be the biggest party in a hung parliament and a far bigger share of the vote to actually form a government in their own right.

The biggest problem in their rise in the polls is the fact that they will impact on the Conservative vote which will leave the Labour Party the biggest party in a hung parliament and therefore able to form a coalition with the Liberals. The SNP will then be unable to argue the the UK Government has no mandate in Scotland. I honestly believe that this will impact on the 2011 Scottish Elections and we are seeing the demise of the SNP. I do hope however that I am way off the mark.

M...

[Maitland]

Another poll this morning.

Yougov

The Conservatives 32%
The Liberal Democrats 33%
The Labour Party 26%

This gives the Liberal Democrats a lead of 1%. This would result in a hung parliament with the Conservatives the biggest party but short of a majority by a whopping 80 seats.

The allocation of seats would be as follows.

The Conservatives 246 seats
The Labour Party 241 seats
The Liberal Democrats 134 seats
Others (SNP, Plaid Cymru, Ulster Unionists, etc) 29 seats.

This post has been edited by Maitland: 19 April 2010 - 08:24 AM
Reason for edit: Typo

[Maitland]

The first poll this morning is from Yougov. I am sure there will be more as the day goes on.

Yougov

The Conservatives 33%
The Liberal Democrats 31%
The Labour Party 27%

This gives the Conservatives a 2% lead. This would result in a hung parliament with the Labour party (Third choice of the electorate) the largest party but short of a majority of 70 seats.

The allocation of seats from the poll above would be:

The Conservatives 253 seats
The Liberal Democrats 112 seats
The Labour Party 256 seats

As you can see the labour Party although securing only 27% of the popular vote and trailing in third would still be the biggest party with regards to seats held and would, in all probability form the next government whether through a coalition or a minority administration.