[Maitland]

The SNP are about to put forward their legislative programme and this includes the Independence Referendum.

BBC NEWS | UK | Scotland | MSPs to debate independence bill

I shall post my thoughts on this at some point today.

M...

This post has been edited by Maitland: 30 August 2009 - 04:54 AM
Reason for edit: typo

[Maitland]

Will the SNP's Independence referendum see the light of day?

It is my belief that it will not and the fact that it will not see the light of day will be used by the SNP at the next general (2010) and Scottish elections (2011).

The SNP do not have a majority of seats within the Scottish Parliament, they therefore govern with a minority government voting on each issue as it is presented.

The SNP have 47 seats in the Scottish Parliament
The Labour Party have 46 seats in the Scottish Parliament
The Conservatives have 17 Seats in the Scottish Parliament (-1 as he is the presiding officer)
The Liberal Democrats have 16 seats in the Scottish Parliament
The Scottish Green Party have 2 seats in the Scottish Parliament.
Margo Macdonald the sole Independent and once a member of the SNP.

When the SNP minority government put the referendum to a vote in the Scottish Parliament you can expect the following result.

The SNP (47 seats), the Scottish Green Party (2 seats) and Margo Macdonald (1 seat) will vote in favour of a referendum on Scottish Independence giving a total for of 50 seats.

The Labour Party (46 seats), the Conservative Party (17 seats - 1) and the Liberal Democrats (16) seats will vote against a referendum on Scottish Independence giving a total against of 78 seats.

This will make a majority against of 28 seats.

Further thoughts later.

M...

The

[Maitland]

Where does this now leave Scottish Independence. Well it leaves it in the hands of the voters.

Lets say that the Referendum bill does not pass through the Scottish Parliament and we go into the general election in June 2010. The SNP can argue that the people of Scotland have been denied the democratic right to vote on the future of Scotland and it is up to the voters in Scotland to make their displeasure known at the ballot box.

It is impossible for the SNP to form a UK government as they only have candidates in Scotland so they are reliant on a good number of MP's returned to Westminster to speak up for Scottish Independence. The SNP currently have 7 MP's at Westminster out of a possible 59.

If the SNP were to return 30 MP's from Scotland at the general election they can argue that this is a clear mandate for Scottish Independence, but will they? No they will not. They will argue that it is a clear mandate to hold a referendum on Scottish Independence. Personally I believe this is nonesense and the SNP should bring those 30 elected MP's back to the Scottish Parliament and in conjunction with the elected SNP MSP's repeal the Act of Union 1707 on the floor of the Scottish Parliament and declare Scottish Independence. However I am quite sure there will be some legal ramifications to this.

The SNP could on the other hand lose MP's and return less than the current number of 7 or increase there representation at Westminster by half a dozen but until they reach the magic number of 30 it can be argued that the majority of voters in Scotland are happy with the Union and Scotlands place within it.

Let us now turn to the Scottish Election in 2011. If the SNP have not returned 30 MP's to Westminster they have another shot at the Scottish Elections. They have an advantage (some may say that this is a disadvantage) of running the Scottish Government. They can once again argue that the unionist parties in Scotland have denied the Scottish people their democratic right to vote on Scottish Independence and it is once again down to them to make their feelings known at the ballot box but will they?

There are 129 possible seats up for grabs in the Scottish Parliament. I have already mentioned how many seats are represented by which party. To have a working majority the SNP or a coalition would need 65 seats. If the SNP were to get 65 seats on their own as a party then once again it can be argued that they have a mandate for Scottish Independence but what the SNP will say is that they have a mandate for a Scottish Referendum and would put the bill back to the Scottish Parliament where it would make its way through the relevant stages successfully and could then be put to the people of Scotland, Independence from the UK or stay part of the UK.

The next two years will in my view be a defining moment in Scottish Politics and our place within the UK.

My personal belief is that the SNP will obtain more seats at Westminster in 2010, possibly as many as 20 but will fall short of an outright majority of Scottish Seats. They may be able to obtain consessions regarding a referendum if their is a hung parliament but I believe that the Conservatives will be elected with a good majority.

At the 2011 Scottish elections I believe that the SNP will once again win the majority of seats to form another minority government and with a second term could persuade the liberal democrats to form a coalition. The Liberal Democrats would insist that a third question is placed on the referendum for them to agree to it and that quesion will be "do you want more powers for the Scottish Parliament" I believe this is how the people of Scotland will vote.

I think the settled will of the people of Scotland will fall short of Scottish Independence for generations to come. Scotland will have full fiscal autonomy but Westminster will still retain responsibility for the Military, foreign policy and immigration.

The final chapter in time will be a United Countries of Europe with everything centralised. I hope I am wrong.

Let us see how well these predictions pan out in the years to come. I will be more than happy to be proven wrong and Scotland takes her rightful place on the world stage as an Independent Nation where the will of the Scottish People is decided by a Scottish Government and not a foreign power.

M...

[Maitland]

An interesting link.

BBC NEWS | UK | Scotland | 'No U-turn' on independence vote

There appears to be a little noise coming from the Scottish Lib Dem camp with regards to supporting a referendum on Scottish Independence. In my opinion the support of the Lib Dems will stop Scottish Independence for generations. Their support will entail a third question on the referendum regarding more powers for the Scottish Parliament and this I believe will be the settled will of the people of Scotland.

M...

[Mike]

It almost feels as if the last couple years have been steps in the wrong direction.

The various nationalist groups need to start mending fences, rather than allowing the divisions between them to grow. And methods need to be explored to better educate Scots on what independence really means for them.

We're struggling with that here in the States. Too many people are relying on what the Zionist media says to them and what they read in the forwarded e-mails they receive. People have stopped studying vital issues, they just let others tell them what they are meant to believe. Every day, we read about rising unemployment numbers, rising mortgage foreclosure numbers, a dollar that is continuing to lose value, and all that is ignored because Bernanke has said the recession is over. And why watch all the signs pointing to our economic meltdown when we can listen to a man that hasn't been right even once?

We are starting to see some positives coming from grassroots level patriotic organizations in this country and perhaps this is something Scots should revisit. But the only way that will bring any success is for the arguing and infighting to stop.

It is sad that one of Hitler's observations holds true today - 'What good fortune for government that the people do not think.'

[mairead]

Re. Methods to better educate Scots. ? You better believe it Mike.
Just this week, I replied to a letter in our local Dunoon Observer, in which a writer had stated that the opposing army to the Jacobites was a Scots army therefore the Scots won at Culloden.

I nearly had a fit when I read that. Hope they publish my reply this weekend.

[Maitland]

From Gordon Browns Speech yesterday.

"Britain – the four home nations – each is unique, each with its own great contribution and we will never allow separatists or narrow nationalists in Scotland or in Wales to sever the common bonds that bring our country together as one."

"Never allow" What happens if (and yes it is a big if) the people of Scotland vote for Independence in a referendum, will he ignore it?

M...

[Mike]

That quote is nearly enough to make me physically ill.

[Maitland]

Yet on the other hand he said that he believes that a referendum on Scotlands constitutional position can be held, but not in the short term.

Gordon Brown is flapping in the wind trying desperately to keep himself and his party from hitting the ground with an almighty thud.

The Sun (A total rag of a paper) has withdrawn it's support for Gordon Brown and the Labour Party. The Scottish Sun (Same paper same owners) aren't sure whether they will support the Conservatives as their owners in England have done. This may have something to do with the fact that out of 59 possible MP's in Scotland the Conservatives have 1. Hardly an endorsement of the Conservatives in Scotland. The Scottish Sun has said that they cannot see themselves supporting the SNP, however I would suggest that if polls were to show an increase in SNP support (as they have done in the past) then the Sun may change tact.

Gordon Brown and the Labour Party are well and truly finished and only a miracle will keep them in power, they are looking at the headlines and making policy up to suit.

M...

[Maitland]

The Draft Referendum Bill will be published on Friday and here is the latest noise from the Unionists and the Unionist press.

http://news.bbc.co.u...and/8527765.stm

M...