[Maitland]

The Glasgow East By Election takes place tomorrow the 12th November. This by election takes place after the resignation of Micheal Martin the Speaker of the House of Commons.

There are a number of candidates but the four main candidates are from the Scottish National Party, The Scottish Labour Party, The Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party. The Scottish Labour Party have a majority of 10134 votes.

Do I think that the Scottish National Party will win this by election, not a chance. Even after 50 years of Labour Domination in this area the area itself is still impoverished, you have to ask yourself the question, "if the labour party can't get it right for 50 years what chance do they have of getting it right over the next 5?" Very little I would suggest. You have to remember that there is a saying for the electorate in this part of Glasgow "Put a red rosette on a monkey" and they would still vote for it, sad, but true.

I don't think it will make a massive difference to the Scottish National Party as they don't expect to win but it may just take the wind out of their sails a little and give a wee bit of hope to the Scottish Labour Party.

I would suggest a majority of 7000 for the Labour party with a slight rise to the SNP regards their percentage of the vote.

M...

This post has been edited by Maitland: 11 November 2009 - 06:46 AM

[Maitland]

The polls have opened this morning. The latest poll suggests that the Labour party are 17% ahead in the popular vote. No real surprise. As I have said previously I would suggest that the SNP will increase their share of the vote, if they don't then it would be in my humble opinion a wee bit of a disaster for them. To come out of this with any credibility they have to have a good swing in this constituency and on that point I have my doubts.

Whether I stay up (as I usually do) into the wee hours for the result will be another matter. I certainly don't expect a shock victory for the SNP and may just leave it until tomorrow to listen to the political pundits hammering the SNP and praising the unionists for their victory.

M...

[Maitland]

The count is under way this evening for the Glasgow North East by election. There are early indications that the turnout of voters is possibly the lowest that it has ever been for a Westminster by election and that is not good for democracy.

There is also some talk that the Labour Party have taken over 50% of the popular vote and if that is the case then it will be a bit of a disasterous night for the Scottish National Party. The Nationalists need to win the heart and minds of the people of Glasgow if Scottish Independence is to succeed and if the Labour Party have indeed taken over half of the votes cast then the Nationalists have a long way to go.

I have no idea what time the result is due but would suggest that it is about one hour away and may be called around 1am.

M...

[Maitland]

The turnout for this by election is about 33%. Not surprising given the apathy towards politics and politicians.

M...

[Maitland]

I think the talk of the evening may not be about the Labour Party win or the SNP coming second but rather the fact that the Scottish Conservatives and the Scottish Liberal Democrats have been beaten into third place by the BNP (British National Party).

If the BNP do take third place it is certainly a shift in Scottish Politics but will also deflect some of the news from the SNP towards a BNP coming third in a Scottish by election.

M...

[Maitland]

It is now just after 1am and we still do not have a result for this election. I think we all know that the Labour Party have won but I am sticking to the end to see if they have secured a majority that sits near my prediction of 7000. They are now saying that the result will be due at around 1.30am. Hopefully that will be the case and I can make my way to bed given the fact that I am up early.

M...

[Maitland]

Labour 12,231
SNP 4120
Conservative 1075
BNP 1013
Solidarity 794
Liberal Democrats 474
Green Party 332
Jury Team 258

There was another 5 candidates at this election.

This gives the Labour Party a majority of 8111 votes and by my calculations over 50% of the popular vote. I will comment on this tomorrow but now I think it is time for bed.

M...

[Maitland]

This particular constituency is a working class impoverished area and their natural tendency is a vote for the Labour Party, a party set up to represent the working class. This constituency has been represented by a Labour Representative for the last 74 years and during this time they have remained a poorer part of Glasgow so another vote and such an overwhelmimg vote for Labour has came as a surprise to some.

As I have said in a previous thread there is a mind set that as a member of the working class they have a duty to vote for a party set up in their name and that is a mind set that is very difficult to break. My Grandfather was a Labour Voter, my Father a Labour Voter and member of the party and I became at a young age a member of the Young Socialists and then an active member of the local Labour branch, this is what is expected and for me personally it was difficult to break away from that particular mindset, so I understand fully the difficulty to the electrorate of Glasgow North East to move away from a Labour Party that have done little for them in recent years.

There were a number of issues in play at this by election, one, as I have said is the mind set of the electorate but other factors were an SNP candidate who had no tangible connection to the constituency, the cancellation of the Glasgow Airport link and the campaign run by the local Labour branch regarding the supposed apathy to Glasgow in general by the Nationalist Scottish Government.

I think the difficulty here is the fact that it would suggest that the Labour Party may do a little better in Scotland at the next general UK election than is expected and that means another episode in Scottish Politics when the people of Scotland vote overwhelmingly against a Conservative and Unionist Government in Westminster yet that is what we will get come the general election next year.

The percentage of the vote between the Labour Party and the SNP is an eye opener. The Labour party got 59.39% of the vote against the SNP's 20%. That is obviously a massive win for the Labour party and an embarressment for the SNP.

One of the statistics from this constituency is this. 52% of the electorate in Glasgow North East have NO formal educational qualifications. There is a comment to be made here (In all seriousness) but it is one I think would be remiss of me to make.

M...